On April 4th, AMCHAM hosted a virtual webinar examining the impact of the newly imposed 26% U.S. tariffs on Indian exports and their implications for the U.S.-India economic relationship. The session opened with an overview of the sectors most affected—agriculture, auto components, energy, steel, and aluminium—and explored India’s likely rational and diplomatic response. The keynote speaker, Mr. Sunil Mehta, Past Chairman, AMCHAM and Chairman, IndusInd Bank Ltd., emphasized the cyclical nature of U.S.-India trade dynamics, stressing that India is expected to avoid escalation. American companies in India were advised to remain focused, align with local norms, and refrain from reacting hastily, as the government has historically supported foreign businesses during challenging times.

The discussion, moderated by Mr. Abhishek Tomar, Chairman – Economic Affairs Committee, AMCHAM and Chief Data Officer S&P Global Market Intelligence, addressed sector-specific concerns, including shipment timelines and potential exemptions, particularly for goods already in transit. Service exports, particularly IT and GCCs, were viewed as relatively insulated due to their strategic value to the U. S. economy. The discussion also touched on the broader economic risks of protectionist policies, such as inflation and recession, with concerns regarding global capital realignment and long-term U.S. competitiveness. Geopolitical implications were also discussed, including the possibility of other trade partners adopting similar tariff measures. Speakers suggested this could prompt India to accelerate bilateral agreements with more flexible partners, especially in the EU and Asia, and position itself competitively in sectors like defense, energy, and auto components.

The conversation also explored the potential for companies to leverage India’s FTA network for alternative trade routes and sourcing strategies, potentially encouraging more U. S. firms to expand operations in India. Additionally, the session addressed growing resistance to U. S. dominance in global finance, with suggestions that a shift toward more distributed financial systems is underway. The session underscored the importance of measured responses, strategic engagement, and maintaining alignment with both home and host country interests. The agriculture sector was highlighted as a key area for untapped U.S.-India collaboration. Despite current tensions, the overall message remained optimistic, reaffirming the resilience and long-term potential of the bilateral economic partnership.